ETF Securities Research Blog

Post Brexit “Continental Partnership”: to remedy or exacerbate market volatility?

The “Continental Partnership” (CP) – an independent framework proposal for the UK-EU post-Brexit negotiations – would avoid the UK and the EU “being dragged into unprincipled bargaining” but would also consist of a jurisprudence for all EU members. Although the proposal could reduce some long-term concerns about the economic consequences of the Brexit, the creation of an alternative to the “one-size-fits-all EU” could lead to more members deflecting. Such an outcome could lead to further market volatility and raise the demand for defensive assets.

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Anatomy of the raising LIBOR

When US interbank lending rates spiked higher without a corresponding official rate rise, investors appeared primarily concerned about liquidity risk in the banking system. However, we believe the rise of the 3-month interbank rates (LIBOR) reflects higher counterparty risks – rising bank stress – rather than a rise of liquidity premiums.

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