ETF Securities Research Blog

Oil above $50 is sustainable

The Brent oil price today touched $50 per barrel for the first time since November 3rd 2015. The inevitable disappointment at the OPEC meeting in Vienna next week presents some downside risks but a burgeoning supply deficit in Q3 2016 implies oil above 50 is sustainable.

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Can palladium turn from laggard to leader?

If being a contrarian investor is appealing, palladium should be the new go-to precious metal of choice. In terms of where investors have flocked, gold and silver have been courted at the expense of platinum group metals. Palladium in particular has been ignored.

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Watch out agriculture: La Niña is coming

Yesterday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) raised their forecast for a La Niña to 75% starting this Northern Hemisphere Autumn. While meteorologists are often wary about putting out forecasts with such confidence before June, the combined cooling of sea surface and underwater temperatures has helped their assertion. In all 6 occasions since 1979 when there has been cold subsurface water temperatures during spring, a winter La Niña has emerged.

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Speculative trading in China: over-hyped

Speculative bubble in China that quickly dissipated

Chinese iron ore, rebar*, and egg prices increased sharply in March and April, but are now declining. The volume of trading of commodities on Chinese exchanges has also increased in recent months. Media reports point to Chinese retail investors piling into commodities, seeking a new home for their money after the fall-out of the equity market in 2015 and a recent policy-engineered increase in credit. Read more…